HONOLULU (KHON2) – With a progressive pattern to our north, a series of three fronts will approach the state from the northwest over the next week, but will likely dissipate just north of the area or only briefly brush Kauai.
The first will near today into tomorrow, the second on Tuesday, and the third on Thursday into Friday…with each front seeming to nudge slightly closer to the state.
As each front nears, the local pressure gradient will relax, bringing light background winds that will allow for land and sea breezes to become more prevalent.
The surface ridge centered to the far northeast will try to reestablish itself after each front passes to our north, but the quick succession of fronts will only allow trades to return briefly to the area before the local pressure gradient weakens yet again and land and sea breezes dominate.
The fluctuations in the prevailing wind speed and direction will determine where any showers are likely to develop each day.
With the lighter wind days expected today, Tuesday and Thursday as each front nears, a land and sea breeze pattern featuring windward showers at night and interior showers during the day will dominate…with a slight uptick in showers over the western end of the state possible.
On Sunday into Monday, moderate easterly trades will try to build back in, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly overnight, although isolated sea breeze showers will be possible in the afternoon.
On Wednesday, winds will turn southerly and increase boundary layer moisture which should cause inversion heights to rise, bringing an increase in showers to mainly leeward areas, particularly over the western end of the state.
On Friday into Saturday, moderate east- southeasterly trades should return, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas over the eastern end of the state and sea breezes bringing showers to island interiors of the western half of the state.
High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.