HONOLULU (KHON2) — Hawaiʻi is not protected from recessions. This is particularly true for today as tourism cools in the face of national hostilities toward immigrants, migrants and tourists as well as the quick integration of artificial intelligence in the markets and workplaces.
Recessions quickly slow hiring and then reduce payrolls in areas where spending drops first. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research serves as the official arbiter of recessions as they publish their timeline in its business cycle records.
The pattern tends to repeat: demand for discretionary products, travel and housing declines and support positions are often cut early.
No list is flawless; but according to NBER, these jobs have historically been at risk when budgets tighten, especially as we move into territory marked by U.S. moves to prohibit tourism across the country.
If you’re in one of these fields, it’s wise to build financial reserves and keep an updated résumé ready.
1. Temp agency staff and corporate recruiters
Companies freeze hiring before they cut core teams. Employment in temporary help often turns first, as shown in the Fed’s Temporary Help Services series. When temp hiring pauses, recruiting coordinators and sources feel it quickly. Keep relationships warm with multiple clients in case one pipeline is cut off.
2. Residential construction laborers
Housing is interest-rate sensitive and slows early in downturns. The BLS notes construction shed more than 2 million jobs in the Great Recession, a point highlighted in its construction employment review. Crews tied to remodeling and new builds face cancellations first. Maintain certifications and a clean safety record to stand out when work thins.
3. Real estate agents and mortgage loan officers
Closely tied to housing cycles, these roles slow as buyers disappear. When demand dries up, commissions and loan volume collapse, and lenders raise standards. Agents with strong referral networks and niche expertise fare better than generalists.
4. Auto salespeople and F&I managers
Cars are big-ticket items, and sales dip sharply when confidence weakens. BEA’s light vehicle sales data shows strong swings during downturns. Dealers cut floor staff and shift toward online channels. Cross-train on financing or used inventory to keep hours.
5. Furniture and appliance sales associates
Durable goods are an early cutback for households. BEA’s personal consumption data shows these goods take the first hit. Stores reduce shifts and lean on commissions. Protect your position by tracking attach rates and service plans.
6. Restaurant servers and bartenders
Dining out is a quick way for households to save money. Slow weeks mean fewer tables and more on-call shifts. Staff who can cover multiple stations and handle closing shifts are more likely to be retained.
7. Travel agents and tour operators
Vacations are often postponed in downturns. DOT’s Passenger Travel report showed steep declines in 2009. Niche agents focused on complex or corporate travel hold steadier demand. Build close vendor partnerships to weather slowdowns.
8. Corporate event planners and AV techs
Conferences, trade shows, and offsites are easy budget targets. Companies pivot to webinars and smaller virtual events. Having a streamlined, solo-deliverable package can keep you marketable.
9. Retail salespersons and cashiers
Discretionary retail traffic fades fast. Managers typically cut hours before eliminating roles. Staying valuable means owning a category and learning basic merchandising so you remain essential.
10. Advertising sales reps
Marketing budgets are among the first cuts. In 2020, newspaper ad revenue plunged, as Pew data shows. Sellers with strong digital options and renewal-heavy books fare better than those tied to legacy channels.
11. Personal trainers and studio instructors
Gym memberships and studio classes are often paused. Schedules shrink, and digital alternatives grow. Trainers who package short, results-focused programs maintain more clients.
12. Luxury retail associates
High-end spending cools rapidly in recessions. Stores consolidate and keep only their strongest advisors. Keeping your client book active with private appointments is critical.
13. Home-improvement sales reps
Remodeling projects get delayed, especially big ones. Sales reps can preserve some demand by suggesting phased or lower-cost projects and offering financing or maintenance options.
14. Corporate trainers and onsite facilitators
Training and travel budgets are common targets for cuts. Internal teams turn to virtual sessions. Packaging material into short, ROI-focused modules helps retain work.
15. Freelance creatives serving agencies
Ad and branding budgets shrink, leaving less overflow work for freelancers. Clients request edits over new concepts. A broad client base and retainer options provide more stability.
16. Wedding photographers and venue coordinators
Large gatherings contract in downturns. Couples scale back or shift to off-peak dates. Diversifying into elopements or weekday packages helps maintain cash flow.
You can click here to go through HBER’s data.
There are several professions that are expected to expand over the next decade; so, it may be time for folks to begin considering career moves and/or more education to access those opportunities.