HONOLULU (KHON2) – An upper level low 300-400 miles to our west has helped keep thunderstorms going, but so far they have been well offshore.
This low will move NE through Monday night and weaken into a trough.
It will then become nearly stationary over the state, bringing enhanced instability to the region.
There is a slight chance for thunderstorms over/near Kauai and Niihau over the next couple of days due to the cold air aloft associated with this trough.
Models also indicate enough instability developing over the Kona side of the Big Island Wednesday afternoon to warrant a mention of thunderstorms.
Wednesday, the trough will “pinch off” and form a new closed low to our southwest due to the influence of an upper ridge asserting itself eastward around 30 N.
The low will move SW, away from the state.
At the same time, a large central Pacific trough will move down the east side of the ridge, and may even push a boundary into or through the area late next weekend.
Models have yet to come into agreement on the evolution of this system, and at this time range, that’s to be expected.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.