HONOLULU (KHON2) – For tonight, moisture and increased humidity will spread westward, and the persistent light to moderate trade winds will produce showers along mainly windward slopes.
Kauai will likely experience diminished rainfall this evening as the current batch of showers moves westward, followed by higher rain chances toward sunrise as the deeper moisture finally reaches the western end of the island chain.
Kiko is forecast to pass north of the islands as a tropical storm Tuesday and Wednesday, and while no direct impacts are expected, a moist and humid airmass with dew points in the low to mid 70s will bring a chance of heavy showers.
Although there appears to be no organized moisture over the state on Tuesday, precipitable water within the tropical air mass will be around 1.50 to 1.75 inches, and a weak upper-level trough over the region will help to erode or eliminate the inversion.
As Kiko moves to the north of island chain, trade winds will be weakened or disrupted completely, allowing afternoon sea breezes to produce clouds and spotty showers over land.
Some showers may become locally heavy, and we cannot rule out a brief thunderstorm, mainly over interior Big Island.
As Kiko passes north of Kauai on Wednesday, moderate trade winds will build over the Big Island and Maui in the afternoon.
Heavy showers will still be possible, especially over the western half of the island chain.
As Kiko moves off to the northwest of the state on Wednesday night and Thursday, moderate trade winds and a ridge aloft are expected to build in from the east.
The resulting stable conditions will bring a drier air mass with a typical pattern of windward rainfall and dew points dropping back into the mid 60s.
High Surf Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Tuesday for Olomana, Kauai East, Kauai South, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maui Windward West, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.