HONOLULU (KHON2) – A rather stable, light to moderate trade wind flow remains in place this afternoon.
A surface trough lies between Hawaii and somewhat strong high pressure farther north, causing the local pressure gradient and resulting trade winds to weaker than usual, and a mid-level ridge sitting over the islands is maintaining stable conditions with an inversion based near 7,000 ft.
A narrow slot of reduced moisture is producing minimal rainfall along windward areas this afternoon, and aside from scattered showers over the Kona slopes of the Big Island and Ulupalakua area of Upcountry Maui, leeward areas are dry.
Shower activity over leeward Maui will dissipate quickly around sundown and will diminish overnight on the Big Island.
Shower activity over windward areas will remain light, with the exception of a possible uptick near Kauai and Oahu near sunrise.
Subtle changes are expected Monday and Tuesday. A surface trough will develop roughly 600 miles northwest of Kauai and cause local trade winds to veer out of the east to east-southeast, possibly causing afternoon leeward sea breezes to be more extensive on Kauai and Oahu.
The inversion will weaken over these islands as well, suggesting higher chances for afternoon showers over leeward terrain.